Shutouts and near-shutouts in the World Series
Posted by John Autin on October 24, 2011
Derek Holland was removed from Game 4 after getting an out in the 9th, and wound up with no runs charged to him. How rare is that?
- It was the 3rd out of 2,656 postseason starts to last at least 8.1 IP but less than 9 IP, with no runs allowed:
| Rk | Player | Date | Series | Gm# | Tm | Opp | Rslt | App,Dec | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | Pit | Str | GSc | IR | IS | BF | AB | 2B | 3B | IBB | HBP | SH | SF | GDP | SB | CS | PO | BK | WP | WPA | RE24 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Derek Holland | 2011-10-23 | WS | 4 | TEX | STL | W 4-0 | GS-9 ,W | 8.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 116 | 76 | 84 | 28 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.444 | 4.441 | .829 | ||
| 2 | Andy Pettitte | 1996-10-24 | WS | 5 | NYY | ATL | W 1-0 | GS-9 ,W | 8.1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 96 | 59 | 74 | 31 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.452 | 4.010 | 1.608 | ||
| 3 | Steve Avery | 1991-10-10 | NLCS | 2 | ATL | PIT | W 1-0 | GS-9 ,W | 8.1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 118 | 78 | 78 | 32 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.507 | 3.437 | 1.591 |
(By the way, no postseason SP has ever begun the 9th with a shutout and then been lifted before getting an out, while still winding up with no runs on his record.)
Holland's gem was the 100th WS start consisting of at least 8 scoreless innings; every one of those SPs got the win. The first 79 of those were CG shutouts; Jack Billingham (1972, Game 3) was the first to be lifted after 8 IP and wind up with a scoreless start, as Clay Carroll closed out the 1-0 win.
Breakdown of scoreless WS starts of at least 8 IP:
- By decade:
1903-1910 -- 14 out of 82 starts (17.1%)
1911-1920 -- 12 out of 120 (10%)
1921-1930 -- 8 out of 118 (6.8%)
1931-1940 -- 8 out of 110 (7.3%)
1941-1950 -- 12 out of 114 (10.5%)
1951-1960 -- 11 out of 128 (8.6%)
1961-1970 -- 13 out of 116 (11.1%)
1971-1980 -- 3 out of 124 (2.4%) (shutouts by Luis Tiant and Nelson Briles, and Billingham's 8-IP game)
1981-1990 -- 7 out of 114 (6.1%)
1991-2000 -- 6 out of 102 (5.8%)
2001-2011 -- 6 out of 114 (5.3%)
- By score:
1-0 -- 22 games (last by Andy Pettitte, 1996)
2-0 -- 18 (last by Josh Beckett, 2003)
3-0 -- 20 (last by John Tudor, 1985)
3-1 -- 1 (Kenny Rogers, 2006)
4-0 -- 13 (last by Derek Holland, 2011)
5-0 -- 9 (last by Chris Carpenter, 2006)
6-0 -- 4 (last by Orel Hershiser, 1988)
6-5 -- 1 (Roger Clemens, 2000)
7-0 -- 2 (last by Sandy Koufax, 1965)
8-0 -- 2 (last by Bobo Newsom, 1940)
9-0 -- 3 (Johnny Kucks, 1956)
10-0 -- 2 (last by Mike Caldwell, 1982)
11-0 -- 2 (last by Bret Saberhagen, 1985)
12-0 -- 1 (Whitey Ford, 1960)
Finally ... There have now been 112 shutouts in World Series play.
Sunday's game was the 22nd combined shutout:
| Date | Series | Gm# | Team | Opp | Result | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/6/1930 | WS | 5 | PHA | STL | W 2-0 | Only WS shutout in which L.Grove (GF) was involved |
| 10/4/1958 | WS | 3 | NYY | MLN | W 4-0 | |
| 10/1/1959 | WS | 1 | CHW | LAD | W 11-0 | |
| 10/6/1959 | WS | 5 | CHW | LAD | W 1-0 | 1st WS shutout using 3 pitchers |
| 10/8/1961 | WS | 4 | NYY | CIN | W 7-0 | J.Coates (4 IP) longest relief outing in a WS shutout (W.Ford left in 6th) |
| 10/14/1969 | WS | 3 | NYM | BAL | W 5-0 | |
| 10/18/1972 | WS | 3 | CIN | OAK | W 1-0 | |
| 10/18/1973 | WS | 5 | NYM | OAK | W 2-0 | |
| 10/16/1979 | WS | 6 | PIT | BAL | W 4-0 | K.Tekulve 2nd & last RP with 3+ IP in a WS shutout |
| 10/21/1981 | WS | 2 | NYY | LAD | W 3-0 | |
| 10/18/1986 | WS | 1 | BOS | NYM | W 1-0 | |
| 10/16/1990 | WS | 1 | CIN | OAK | W 7-0 | J.Rijo, R.Dibble, R.Myers |
| 10/28/1995 | WS | 6 | ATL | CLE | W 1-0 | 1-hitter by T.Glavine & M.Wohlers |
| 10/21/1996 | WS | 2 | ATL | NYY | W 4-0 | |
| 10/24/1996 | WS | 5 | NYY | ATL | W 1-0 | J.Wetteland strands tying run on 3rd with 1 out |
| 10/21/1998 | WS | 4 | NYY | SDP | W 3-0 | 3 pitchers |
| 10/27/2004 | WS | 4 | BOS | STL | W 3-0 | 1st WS shutout using 4 pitchers |
| 10/26/2005 | WS | 4 | CHW | HOU | W 1-0 | 4 pitchers |
| 10/24/2006 | WS | 3 | STL | DET | W 5-0 | |
| 10/28/2010 | WS | 2 | SFG | TEX | W 9-0 | 3 pitchers |
| 10/31/2010 | WS | 4 | SFG | TEX | W 4-0 | |
| 10/23/2011 | WS | 4 | TEX | STL | W 4-0 |
October 24th, 2011 at 12:52 pm
How does the frequency of shutouts (combined or otherwise) in the World Series compare to the rest of the playoffs? The regular season?
I can't figure out what makes intuitive sense. On the one hand, it seems like it might be more common as better teams are generally going to have better pitchers. At the same time, that would also mean better hitters on the opposing teams. On the other, other hand, a coach might have a quick hook at the first sign of trouble or be more likely to PH for a pitcher. Of course, it is also possible that coaches would rather leave the ball in the hand of their ace pitcher than bring in a reliever in a tight contest.
My head hurts... someone just run the numbers...
October 24th, 2011 at 1:44 pm
I don't think Holland would have gotten the last couple outs but Feliz sure did make it interesting because he couldn't find the strike zone at all. Ron Washington would've been ripped if he didn't pull out Holland and they somehow lost the game like Grady Little and Pedro.
October 24th, 2011 at 1:57 pm
I did a bit of crunching...
If I used the PI right, there have been 19,570 regular season games where a team allowed 0 runs. I did not control for rain shortened games, though I suppose I pretty easily could have. I don't know how many total games have been played, but I do know we crossed the 200,000 plateau late in the season, so let's use that as a rough estimate. 19,570/200,000 is approximately 1 SHO every 10 games. That seems high, but the PI results had over 300 for 2011 alone, so I suppose it is more common than I realized.
Looking at the numbers here, we see that there were 112 SHOs in World Series play, which thus far has involved 1242 games. 112/1242 isn't very far off from the approximately 1 SHO every 10 regular season games.
The actual numbers: 112/1242 = .0901 and 19570/200000 = .09785, though that second number is obviously a bit high since I am underestimating the total games played in MLB history. I am not savy enough to know if that is statistically signifigant.
What I am most shocked by is the frequency of shutouts. Obviously, 2011 was a bit of a down year for offense, but there were still 323 games in which a team scored zero runs, meaning an average of almost 2 per day. Sure doesn't seem that way! I guess we are less likely to notice a SHO if it isn't a CGSHO by the starting pitching?
October 24th, 2011 at 2:39 pm
@3
I ran the PI and found what you did, 19570 shutouts. I ran PI a second time with IP => 9 and found 19303 shut-outs.
Doesn't that number of >200,000 games also count games played before 1901?
October 24th, 2011 at 2:46 pm
Holland's game score was also the 3rd highest in the World Series among pitchers pitching less than 9 innings.
Only Clemens (2000, game 2) and Glavine (1995, game 6) had a higher mark.
October 24th, 2011 at 3:01 pm
In the first combined shutout (10/6/1930), Lefty Grove went 2 innings for the game 6 win. Not bad for a guy who had pitched a game 5 complete game the day before. George Earnshaw who started the game and went 7 innings followed that up two days later with a complete game victory in game 7.
October 24th, 2011 at 3:03 pm
Richard Chester-
It very well might. I don't know exactly how that was calculated and I don't know a better way to count all games, unless we simply do a PI search for all games that lasted .1 IP or longer or something.
October 24th, 2011 at 3:07 pm
RC-
I did a search using the exact same time frame (1919-present) as I did for the SHO list but with the only criteria to be IP >=1. I got a total of 314,694. However, this double-counts each game, since technically both teams pitched one inning. That means we are looking at 157,347 games. That is quite diferent than the original calculation.
October 24th, 2011 at 3:43 pm
@8
BSK:
A slightly high approximation for the number of games from 1901 to 1918 would be 16 x 77 x 18 = 22,176.That calculation is for a 154 game season. In 1901, 1902, 1903, 1918 and 1919 the season was for fewer than 154 games. Then there were also lots of tie games. So since 1901 there have been approximately 179,000 ML games.
October 24th, 2011 at 4:39 pm
meaningless stat note: all three starts at the top are by lefties.
October 24th, 2011 at 5:20 pm
If I am not mistaken the last shutout of the American League -not combined-. was Jack Morris 1-0 in the 7th game of the 1991 World Series, and as everybody knows, he went 10 innings. Please correct me if I am wrong.
October 24th, 2011 at 5:24 pm
Exact number of MLB regular-season games, 1901 to 2011: 180,329.
October 24th, 2011 at 5:30 pm
By the way, no postseason SP has ever begun the 9th with a shutout and then been lifted before getting an out, while still winding up with no runs on his record.
I'm surprised that no pitcher ever walked the lead-off guy, was lifted (presumably a 1-0 or 2-0 game) and the replacement gave up a homerun or a run-scoring hit to achieve the above result. There have been 100+ WS right? I wonder what the odds of that are.
October 24th, 2011 at 5:32 pm
** Oh I guess I cannot read. Amend my post to say that the replacement didn't give up a homerun or run-scoring hit.
October 24th, 2011 at 7:00 pm
I was watching ESPN baseball pregame from Texas and it must be warm and humid in Arlington because there was perspiration coming from the Karl Ravich wig, and the wig looked kind of frizzy. If the wig is any indicator, the ball may be flying out of the park tonight. Enjoy!
October 24th, 2011 at 7:24 pm
Actually Grove WON that 1930 shutout in relief of Earnshaw
October 25th, 2011 at 10:00 am
@16, Nick C. -- Thanks for the correction on Grove. I've amended the post.