MLB playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2024-05-14. This page does not update during the postseason.
Most Likely Scenarios
| First Round Bye | Wild Card Round | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lg | Top Seed | Division Winner | Division Winner | Wild Card | Wild Card | Wild Card | ||
| NL | Los Angeles Dodgers | Atlanta Braves | Milwaukee Brewers | Philadelphia Phillies | Chicago Cubs | San Diego Padres | ||
| AL | Baltimore Orioles | Minnesota Twins | Seattle Mariners | New York Yankees | Kansas City Royals | Cleveland Guardians | ||
Playoff Odds
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | WC | Div | LDS | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| NL East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Atlanta Braves | NL | E | 1.4 | -0.1 | 26 | 13 | 72.5 | 50.5 | 98.5 | 63.5 | 108-54 | 90-72 | 99.8% | 37.9% | 61.9% | 77.8% | 40.2% | 20.3% | 10.7% | +0.3% | +2.1% | +8.9% | ||||||
| 2 | Philadelphia Phillies | NL | E | 1.1 | 0.2 | 30 | 13 | 66.6 | 52.4 | 96.6 | 65.4 | 105-57 | 88-74 | 99.3% | 61.2% | 38.1% | 71.8% | 36.2% | 16.5% | 9.5% | +1.2% | +0.9% | +24.7% | ||||||
| 3 | New York Mets | NL | E | 0.2 | 0.0 | 19 | 22 | 62.1 | 58.9 | 81.1 | 80.9 | 91-71 | 72-90 | 28.5% | 28.5% | <0.1% | 12.2% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% | -2.0% | -5.7% | -1.2% | ||||||
| 4 | Washington Nationals | NL | E | -0.5 | 0.1 | 20 | 21 | 55.7 | 65.3 | 75.7 | 86.3 | 85-77 | 66-96 | 7.1% | 7.1% | <0.1% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | +0.7% | -4.2% | +6.2% | ||||||
| 5 | Miami Marlins | NL | E | -1.0 | 0.2 | 12 | 32 | 50.0 | 68.0 | 62.0 | 100.0 | 71-91 | 53-109 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.6% | ||||||
| NL Central | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Milwaukee Brewers | NL | C | 1.1 | -0.1 | 25 | 17 | 69.9 | 50.1 | 94.9 | 67.1 | 104-58 | 86-76 | 98.0% | 22.4% | 75.6% | 67.1% | 33.2% | 15.7% | 8.0% | +3.2% | +1.2% | -0.8% | ||||||
| 2 | Chicago Cubs | NL | C | 0.5 | -0.2 | 24 | 19 | 65.0 | 54.0 | 89.0 | 73.0 | 98-64 | 80-82 | 84.2% | 60.1% | 24.1% | 40.5% | 15.6% | 6.6% | 3.0% | -1.7% | -2.8% | +13.4% | ||||||
| 3 | Cincinnati Reds | NL | C | -0.4 | 0.0 | 18 | 24 | 57.0 | 63.0 | 75.0 | 87.0 | 84-78 | 66-96 | 4.3% | 4.1% | 0.2% | 1.5% | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | +1.9% | -7.7% | -25.9% | ||||||
| 4 | Pittsburgh Pirates | NL | C | -0.4 | 0.1 | 19 | 24 | 55.5 | 63.5 | 74.5 | 87.5 | 84-78 | 66-96 | 5.2% | 5.1% | 0.1% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | +1.1% | -1.0% | -22.2% | ||||||
| 5 | St. Louis Cardinals | NL | C | -1.1 | 0.1 | 18 | 24 | 50.3 | 69.7 | 68.3 | 93.7 | 77-85 | 60-102 | 0.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -0.4% | -0.1% | -1.2% | ||||||
| NL West | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Los Angeles Dodgers | NL | W | 1.7 | -0.2 | 29 | 15 | 72.9 | 45.1 | 101.9 | 60.1 | 110-52 | 93-69 | >99.9% | 1.3% | 98.7% | 94.2% | 56.6% | 34.2% | 21.1% | +0.1% | +0.3% | +2.2% | ||||||
| 2 | San Diego Padres | NL | W | 0.5 | -0.1 | 22 | 23 | 62.8 | 54.2 | 84.8 | 77.2 | 93-69 | 76-86 | 58.1% | 56.9% | 1.2% | 24.6% | 9.7% | 4.2% | 1.6% | -0.2% | +8.6% | -10.5% | ||||||
| 3 | Arizona Diamondbacks | NL | W | 0.0 | 0.1 | 20 | 23 | 58.8 | 60.2 | 78.8 | 83.2 | 87-75 | 70-92 | 14.9% | 14.8% | 0.1% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | -4.2% | +8.1% | +6.8% | ||||||
| 4 | San Francisco Giants | NL | W | -1.0 | 0.1 | 19 | 25 | 49.8 | 68.2 | 68.8 | 93.2 | 78-84 | 60-102 | 0.4% | 0.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -0.1% | +0.2% | +0.1% | ||||||
| 5 | Colorado Rockies | NL | W | -1.3 | 0.1 | 14 | 28 | 50.0 | 70.0 | 64.0 | 98.0 | 73-89 | 55-107 | 0.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.1% | ||||||
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | WC | Div | LDS | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| AL East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Baltimore Orioles | AL | E | 1.1 | 0.0 | 26 | 14 | 70.2 | 51.8 | 96.2 | 65.8 | 105-57 | 87-75 | 96.1% | 21.5% | 74.6% | 83.8% | 49.7% | 28.6% | 15.0% | -0.8% | -0.6% | +2.2% | ||||||
| 2 | New York Yankees | AL | E | 0.3 | 0.0 | 28 | 15 | 62.5 | 56.5 | 90.5 | 71.5 | 99-63 | 82-80 | 81.2% | 57.6% | 23.6% | 53.3% | 24.4% | 11.1% | 4.7% | +4.6% | +16.4% | +50.1% | ||||||
| 3 | Boston Red Sox | AL | E | -0.1 | 0.1 | 22 | 20 | 58.4 | 61.6 | 80.4 | 81.6 | 89-73 | 72-90 | 15.4% | 14.3% | 1.1% | 6.6% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | +0.8% | -12.4% | -1.8% | ||||||
| 4 | Toronto Blue Jays | AL | E | 0.0 | -0.1 | 19 | 22 | 60.8 | 60.2 | 79.8 | 82.2 | 89-73 | 71-91 | 13.1% | 12.6% | 0.5% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | -1.5% | -1.0% | -39.9% | ||||||
| 5 | Tampa Bay Rays | AL | E | -0.1 | 0.2 | 21 | 22 | 57.2 | 61.8 | 78.2 | 83.8 | 87-75 | 69-93 | 9.7% | 9.5% | 0.2% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | +0.6% | -3.9% | -41.5% | ||||||
| AL Central | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Minnesota Twins | AL | C | 0.8 | -0.1 | 24 | 17 | 67.4 | 53.6 | 91.4 | 70.6 | 100-62 | 82-80 | 84.2% | 34.1% | 50.1% | 62.7% | 33.1% | 16.9% | 7.6% | -6.1% | +11.9% | +7.3% | ||||||
| 2 | Kansas City Royals | AL | C | 0.3 | -0.1 | 26 | 18 | 62.4 | 55.6 | 88.4 | 73.6 | 97-65 | 79-83 | 70.5% | 41.1% | 29.4% | 43.9% | 19.5% | 8.9% | 3.3% | +4.1% | +16.7% | +40.2% | ||||||
| 3 | Cleveland Guardians | AL | C | -0.1 | 0.1 | 27 | 16 | 58.3 | 60.7 | 85.3 | 76.7 | 94-68 | 76-86 | 48.6% | 33.7% | 14.9% | 25.7% | 10.0% | 4.1% | 1.7% | +6.3% | +3.3% | -5.6% | ||||||
| 4 | Detroit Tigers | AL | C | 0.1 | 0.0 | 21 | 21 | 61.0 | 59.0 | 82.0 | 80.0 | 91-71 | 73-89 | 25.1% | 19.5% | 5.6% | 13.3% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 1.0% | -4.7% | -0.2% | +9.3% | ||||||
| 5 | Chicago White Sox | AL | C | -1.9 | 0.1 | 13 | 30 | 43.1 | 75.9 | 56.1 | 105.9 | 65-97 | 48-114 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| AL West | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Seattle Mariners | AL | W | 0.7 | -0.2 | 23 | 20 | 67.9 | 51.1 | 90.9 | 71.1 | 99-63 | 82-80 | 86.9% | 11.8% | 75.1% | 64.5% | 34.9% | 18.3% | 8.5% | -1.6% | -6.5% | +24.8% | ||||||
| 2 | Houston Astros | AL | W | 0.7 | -0.2 | 17 | 25 | 66.4 | 53.6 | 83.4 | 78.6 | 92-70 | 74-88 | 35.1% | 20.6% | 14.5% | 19.4% | 9.0% | 4.1% | 1.6% | -0.7% | +12.7% | -22.4% | ||||||
| 3 | Texas Rangers | AL | W | 0.2 | -0.1 | 22 | 22 | 61.1 | 56.9 | 83.1 | 78.9 | 91-71 | 75-87 | 34.0% | 23.6% | 10.4% | 16.8% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 0.9% | -0.8% | -36.4% | -21.4% | ||||||
| 4 | Oakland Athletics | AL | W | -1.3 | 0.1 | 19 | 25 | 48.4 | 69.6 | 67.4 | 94.6 | 76-86 | 58-104 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -0.2% | -0.1% | -0.1% | ||||||
| 5 | Los Angeles Angels | AL | W | -1.5 | 0.1 | 15 | 28 | 48.0 | 71.0 | 63.0 | 99.0 | 72-90 | 54-108 | 0.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | +0.1% | -1.2% | ||||||
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