MLB playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2024-05-25. This page does not update during the postseason.
Most Likely Scenarios
| First Round Bye | Wild Card Round | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lg | Top Seed | Division Winner | Division Winner | Wild Card | Wild Card | Wild Card | ||
| NL | Philadelphia Phillies | Los Angeles Dodgers | Milwaukee Brewers | Atlanta Braves | Chicago Cubs | San Diego Padres | ||
| AL | New York Yankees | Cleveland Guardians | Seattle Mariners | Baltimore Orioles | Kansas City Royals | Minnesota Twins | ||
Playoff Odds
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | WC | Div | LDS | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| NL East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Philadelphia Phillies | NL | E | 1.3 | 0.2 | 38 | 15 | 61.6 | 47.4 | 99.6 | 62.4 | 108-54 | 91-71 | >99.9% | 25.3% | 74.7% | 85.8% | 46.3% | 23.8% | 15.5% | +0.2% | +0.3% | +23.3% | ||||||
| 2 | Atlanta Braves | NL | E | 1.1 | -0.1 | 29 | 20 | 64.9 | 48.1 | 93.9 | 68.1 | 103-59 | 85-77 | 98.3% | 73.0% | 25.3% | 64.0% | 30.9% | 13.3% | 6.8% | -0.6% | -1.1% | +2.1% | ||||||
| 3 | New York Mets | NL | E | 0.1 | 0.0 | 21 | 30 | 55.7 | 55.3 | 76.7 | 85.3 | 85-77 | 68-94 | 10.0% | 10.0% | <0.1% | 4.1% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% | -2.5% | -11.4% | -30.4% | ||||||
| 4 | Washington Nationals | NL | E | -0.6 | 0.1 | 23 | 27 | 50.7 | 61.3 | 73.7 | 88.3 | 82-80 | 66-96 | 3.1% | 3.1% | <0.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -0.3% | -2.5% | +1.7% | ||||||
| 5 | Miami Marlins | NL | E | -0.7 | 0.2 | 18 | 35 | 47.9 | 61.1 | 65.9 | 96.1 | 74-88 | 58-104 | 0.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| NL Central | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Milwaukee Brewers | NL | C | 1.2 | -0.1 | 30 | 21 | 65.4 | 45.6 | 95.4 | 66.6 | 104-58 | 86-76 | 98.2% | 7.9% | 90.3% | 76.0% | 38.2% | 20.3% | 12.8% | +0.1% | -0.6% | -0.6% | ||||||
| 2 | Chicago Cubs | NL | C | 0.3 | -0.1 | 27 | 25 | 58.0 | 52.0 | 85.0 | 77.0 | 93-69 | 76-86 | 67.0% | 58.3% | 8.7% | 30.3% | 12.3% | 4.9% | 2.0% | -6.6% | -21.0% | -19.5% | ||||||
| 3 | Cincinnati Reds | NL | C | -0.1 | -0.1 | 22 | 30 | 55.0 | 55.0 | 77.0 | 85.0 | 86-76 | 69-93 | 11.0% | 10.2% | 0.8% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | +4.9% | +7.5% | -9.4% | ||||||
| 4 | Pittsburgh Pirates | NL | C | -0.3 | 0.1 | 25 | 28 | 51.7 | 57.3 | 76.7 | 85.3 | 85-77 | 68-94 | 10.6% | 10.5% | 0.1% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | +3.3% | +3.4% | +2.9% | ||||||
| 5 | St. Louis Cardinals | NL | C | -1.0 | 0.1 | 24 | 26 | 47.9 | 64.1 | 71.9 | 90.1 | 81-81 | 63-99 | 2.2% | 2.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | +1.0% | +1.5% | +1.7% | ||||||
| NL West | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Los Angeles Dodgers | NL | W | 1.4 | -0.1 | 33 | 21 | 64.9 | 43.1 | 97.9 | 64.1 | 106-56 | 90-72 | 99.9% | 4.1% | 95.8% | 86.9% | 50.6% | 28.1% | 17.0% | +0.3% | 0.0% | +1.7% | ||||||
| 2 | San Diego Padres | NL | W | 0.5 | -0.1 | 27 | 28 | 57.9 | 49.1 | 84.9 | 77.1 | 93-69 | 77-85 | 64.8% | 61.1% | 3.7% | 29.2% | 11.9% | 5.9% | 3.0% | -3.5% | +2.2% | -0.1% | ||||||
| 3 | Arizona Diamondbacks | NL | W | 0.1 | 0.0 | 25 | 27 | 55.4 | 54.6 | 80.4 | 81.6 | 89-73 | 72-90 | 29.4% | 28.9% | 0.5% | 12.1% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% | +3.1% | +17.9% | +22.0% | ||||||
| 4 | San Francisco Giants | NL | W | -0.8 | 0.1 | 27 | 26 | 47.9 | 61.1 | 74.9 | 87.1 | 83-79 | 66-96 | 5.4% | 5.4% | <0.1% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | <0.1% | +0.8% | +3.8% | +4.6% | ||||||
| 5 | Colorado Rockies | NL | W | -1.4 | 0.2 | 17 | 34 | 45.6 | 65.4 | 62.6 | 99.4 | 71-91 | 54-108 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | WC | Div | LDS | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| AL East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | New York Yankees | AL | E | 0.7 | 0.0 | 37 | 17 | 59.6 | 48.4 | 96.6 | 65.4 | 105-57 | 88-74 | 98.3% | 41.3% | 57.0% | 77.9% | 42.1% | 23.5% | 11.2% | +0.6% | +5.9% | +72.8% | ||||||
| 2 | Baltimore Orioles | AL | E | 0.9 | 0.0 | 32 | 18 | 62.5 | 49.5 | 94.5 | 67.5 | 103-59 | 86-76 | 94.5% | 52.4% | 42.1% | 69.2% | 36.1% | 20.1% | 8.2% | -0.5% | -3.0% | -3.7% | ||||||
| 3 | Boston Red Sox | AL | E | 0.1 | 0.1 | 26 | 26 | 54.6 | 55.4 | 80.6 | 81.4 | 89-73 | 72-90 | 15.6% | 14.8% | 0.8% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.5% | +4.4% | +10.5% | -14.3% | ||||||
| 4 | Toronto Blue Jays | AL | E | -0.1 | 0.0 | 23 | 28 | 54.9 | 56.1 | 77.9 | 84.1 | 86-76 | 69-93 | 5.3% | 5.2% | 0.1% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | -4.6% | -2.7% | -50.5% | ||||||
| 5 | Tampa Bay Rays | AL | E | -0.3 | 0.2 | 25 | 28 | 50.8 | 58.2 | 75.8 | 86.2 | 84-78 | 67-95 | 2.9% | 2.9% | <0.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | <0.1% | -1.1% | -13.1% | -20.3% | ||||||
| AL Central | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Cleveland Guardians | AL | C | 0.3 | 0.1 | 35 | 17 | 56.6 | 53.4 | 91.6 | 70.4 | 100-62 | 84-78 | 89.1% | 46.8% | 42.3% | 63.4% | 29.0% | 13.1% | 4.6% | +2.9% | +30.5% | +23.5% | ||||||
| 2 | Kansas City Royals | AL | C | 0.4 | 0.0 | 34 | 19 | 57.4 | 51.6 | 91.4 | 70.6 | 100-62 | 83-79 | 88.0% | 49.6% | 38.4% | 60.5% | 29.5% | 13.5% | 5.6% | +0.8% | +24.3% | +42.5% | ||||||
| 3 | Minnesota Twins | AL | C | 0.6 | -0.1 | 28 | 23 | 60.7 | 50.3 | 88.7 | 73.3 | 97-65 | 80-82 | 72.2% | 53.7% | 18.5% | 43.7% | 21.8% | 12.2% | 5.1% | +3.7% | -0.5% | +10.1% | ||||||
| 4 | Detroit Tigers | AL | C | 0.1 | 0.0 | 25 | 27 | 56.3 | 53.7 | 81.3 | 80.7 | 89-73 | 73-89 | 17.5% | 16.7% | 0.8% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | +2.7% | -18.6% | -18.6% | ||||||
| 5 | Chicago White Sox | AL | C | -2.0 | 0.1 | 15 | 38 | 39.7 | 69.3 | 54.7 | 107.3 | 63-99 | 47-115 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| AL West | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Seattle Mariners | AL | W | 0.4 | -0.3 | 27 | 26 | 59.4 | 49.6 | 86.4 | 75.6 | 95-67 | 78-84 | 67.4% | 7.3% | 60.1% | 39.2% | 20.6% | 9.3% | 3.6% | -1.7% | -12.3% | -23.3% | ||||||
| 2 | Houston Astros | AL | W | 0.6 | -0.2 | 23 | 29 | 60.3 | 49.7 | 83.3 | 78.7 | 92-70 | 75-87 | 39.8% | 6.6% | 33.2% | 22.1% | 10.8% | 4.2% | 1.9% | -7.3% | -1.6% | +22.5% | ||||||
| 3 | Texas Rangers | AL | W | -0.2 | -0.1 | 24 | 29 | 53.8 | 55.2 | 77.8 | 84.2 | 86-76 | 69-93 | 9.4% | 2.7% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | +0.4% | -19.1% | -40.2% | ||||||
| 4 | Los Angeles Angels | AL | W | -1.2 | 0.0 | 20 | 32 | 46.6 | 63.4 | 66.6 | 95.4 | 75-87 | 59-103 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% | -0.5% | ||||||
| 5 | Oakland Athletics | AL | W | -1.3 | 0.0 | 22 | 32 | 44.3 | 63.7 | 66.3 | 95.7 | 74-88 | 58-104 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | 0.0% | ||||||
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